Skip to main content
icon for Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de Austin, Texas, no dia 30 de junho?
Economia·Imobiliário

Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de Austin, Texas, no dia 30 de junho?

icon for Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de Austin, Texas, no dia 30 de junho?
Economia·Imobiliário

Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de Austin, Texas, no dia 30 de junho?

>$495 mil 50%

<US$481 mil 31%

US$490 mil - US$493 mil 20%

$481 mil - $484 mil 10%

Polymarket
NOVO

>$495 mil 50%

<US$481 mil 31%

US$490 mil - US$493 mil 20%

$481 mil - $484 mil 10%

Polymarket
NOVO

$481 mil - $484 mil

$139 Vol.

16%

$484 mil - $487 mil

$173 Vol.

15%

$493 mil - $495 mil

$149 Vol.

16%

US$490 mil - US$493 mil

$123 Vol.

20%

>$495 mil

$400 Vol.

39%

$487 mil - $490 mil

$144 Vol.

18%

<US$481 mil

$398 Vol.

29%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/43)Elevated mortgage rates near 6-7% continue to constrain buyer demand and affordability in the Austin metro, while elevated inventory from pandemic-era construction and moderating in-migration sustain downward pressure on values. Recent data through May 2026 show median sale prices ranging from roughly $440,000 to $542,000 depending on the metric, with year-over-year declines of 1-6% across sources like Redfin and Zillow amid longer days on market and increased price reductions. These conditions underpin the 49% market-implied probability on outcomes below $481k as of mid-June, with traders pricing in limited upside before the June 30 resolution absent near-term rate relief or demand surges.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on June 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/43)
Volume
$1,528
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 2, 2026, 2:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/43)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/43)Elevated mortgage rates near 6-7% continue to constrain buyer demand and affordability in the Austin metro, while elevated inventory from pandemic-era construction and moderating in-migration sustain downward pressure on values. Recent data through May 2026 show median sale prices ranging from roughly $440,000 to $542,000 depending on the metric, with year-over-year declines of 1-6% across sources like Redfin and Zillow amid longer days on market and increased price reductions. These conditions underpin the 49% market-implied probability on outcomes below $481k as of mid-June, with traders pricing in limited upside before the June 30 resolution absent near-term rate relief or demand surges.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on June 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/43)
Volume
$1,528
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 2, 2026, 2:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/43)

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de Austin, Texas, no dia 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">$495 mil" at 39%, followed by "<US$481 mil" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de Austin, Texas, no dia 30 de junho?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de Austin, Texas, no dia 30 de junho?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de Austin, Texas, no dia 30 de junho?" is ">$495 mil" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<US$481 mil" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de Austin, Texas, no dia 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.