Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's inaugural 2026 Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued May 15, which states tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days amid no current disturbances. This aligns with historical precedent—no continental U.S. hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851—compounded by current unfavorable conditions, including elevated vertical wind shear across the tropics that disrupts organization, despite above-average sea surface temperatures in the main development region. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen African tropical wave rapidly intensifying and steering toward Florida or the Gulf Coast, though model consensus shows low genesis potential; watch daily NHC updates and upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks for changes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUm furacão atingirá os EUA até 31 de maio?
Um furacão atingirá os EUA até 31 de maio?
Sim
$25,046 Vol.
$25,046 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Sim
$25,046 Vol.
$25,046 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's inaugural 2026 Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued May 15, which states tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days amid no current disturbances. This aligns with historical precedent—no continental U.S. hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851—compounded by current unfavorable conditions, including elevated vertical wind shear across the tropics that disrupts organization, despite above-average sea surface temperatures in the main development region. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen African tropical wave rapidly intensifying and steering toward Florida or the Gulf Coast, though model consensus shows low genesis potential; watch daily NHC updates and upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks for changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$25,046Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's inaugural 2026 Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued May 15, which states tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days amid no current disturbances. This aligns with historical precedent—no continental U.S. hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851—compounded by current unfavorable conditions, including elevated vertical wind shear across the tropics that disrupts organization, despite above-average sea surface temperatures in the main development region. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen African tropical wave rapidly intensifying and steering toward Florida or the Gulf Coast, though model consensus shows low genesis potential; watch daily NHC updates and upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks for changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Volume
$25,046Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's inaugural 2026 Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued May 15, which states tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days amid no current disturbances. This aligns with historical precedent—no continental U.S. hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851—compounded by current unfavorable conditions, including elevated vertical wind shear across the tropics that disrupts organization, despite above-average sea surface temperatures in the main development region. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen African tropical wave rapidly intensifying and steering toward Florida or the Gulf Coast, though model consensus shows low genesis potential; watch daily NHC updates and upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks for changes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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