**Hurricane Lowell's official National Hurricane Center track keeps its center well offshore the Hawaiian Islands, supporting the market's 94.5% implied probability of no landfall.** As of the latest advisories, the Category 5 system sits roughly 600 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and is forecast to slow, then execute a sharp northward turn Sunday, passing about 150 miles west of Niihau or Kauai as a major hurricane Monday into Monday night. Ensemble guidance shows broad spread but clusters on an offshore track similar to past Central Pacific systems that produced impacts without direct landfall. Increasing wind shear and cooling waters should promote weakening before closest approach. A sharper or slower turn driven by interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina could shift the path eastward enough for landfall, though current model consensus and steering patterns make that outcome unlikely.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO furacão Lowell chegará ao Havaí?
O furacão Lowell chegará ao Havaí?
Sim
5% chance
NOVO
NOVO
12 set 2026
Sim
5% chance
NOVO
NOVO
12 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".**Hurricane Lowell's official National Hurricane Center track keeps its center well offshore the Hawaiian Islands, supporting the market's 94.5% implied probability of no landfall.** As of the latest advisories, the Category 5 system sits roughly 600 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and is forecast to slow, then execute a sharp northward turn Sunday, passing about 150 miles west of Niihau or Kauai as a major hurricane Monday into Monday night. Ensemble guidance shows broad spread but clusters on an offshore track similar to past Central Pacific systems that produced impacts without direct landfall. Increasing wind shear and cooling waters should promote weakening before closest approach. A sharper or slower turn driven by interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina could shift the path eastward enough for landfall, though current model consensus and steering patterns make that outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
Mercado Aberto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$459Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".**Hurricane Lowell's official National Hurricane Center track keeps its center well offshore the Hawaiian Islands, supporting the market's 94.5% implied probability of no landfall.** As of the latest advisories, the Category 5 system sits roughly 600 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and is forecast to slow, then execute a sharp northward turn Sunday, passing about 150 miles west of Niihau or Kauai as a major hurricane Monday into Monday night. Ensemble guidance shows broad spread but clusters on an offshore track similar to past Central Pacific systems that produced impacts without direct landfall. Increasing wind shear and cooling waters should promote weakening before closest approach. A sharper or slower turn driven by interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina could shift the path eastward enough for landfall, though current model consensus and steering patterns make that outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
Volume
$459Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Hurricane Lowell's official National Hurricane Center track keeps its center well offshore the Hawaiian Islands, supporting the market's 94.5% implied probability of no landfall.** As of the latest advisories, the Category 5 system sits roughly 600 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and is forecast to slow, then execute a sharp northward turn Sunday, passing about 150 miles west of Niihau or Kauai as a major hurricane Monday into Monday night. Ensemble guidance shows broad spread but clusters on an offshore track similar to past Central Pacific systems that produced impacts without direct landfall. Increasing wind shear and cooling waters should promote weakening before closest approach. A sharper or slower turn driven by interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina could shift the path eastward enough for landfall, though current model consensus and steering patterns make that outcome unlikely.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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