Extensive NASA and ESA planetary defense monitoring through systems like CNEOS Sentry and global optical/radar surveys has identified no near-Earth objects capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, driving the 98.5% market-implied odds for "No." Historical impact frequencies indicate megaton-scale events occur roughly once per decade at most, with none forecasted amid over 90% catalog coverage of larger hazardous asteroids. Recent close approaches involve only small bodies below relevant energy thresholds, and ongoing fireball data repositories confirm low yields so far. Traders assign high confidence due to this surveillance edge, though an undetected meter-scale object airbursting over remote areas remains a low-probability tail risk before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1 мегатонный удар метеорита в 2026 году?
1 мегатонный удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
2% вероятность
$116,892 Объем
$116,892 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$116,892 Объем
$116,892 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and ESA planetary defense monitoring through systems like CNEOS Sentry and global optical/radar surveys has identified no near-Earth objects capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, driving the 98.5% market-implied odds for "No." Historical impact frequencies indicate megaton-scale events occur roughly once per decade at most, with none forecasted amid over 90% catalog coverage of larger hazardous asteroids. Recent close approaches involve only small bodies below relevant energy thresholds, and ongoing fireball data repositories confirm low yields so far. Traders assign high confidence due to this surveillance edge, though an undetected meter-scale object airbursting over remote areas remains a low-probability tail risk before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Объем
$116,892Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and ESA planetary defense monitoring through systems like CNEOS Sentry and global optical/radar surveys has identified no near-Earth objects capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, driving the 98.5% market-implied odds for "No." Historical impact frequencies indicate megaton-scale events occur roughly once per decade at most, with none forecasted amid over 90% catalog coverage of larger hazardous asteroids. Recent close approaches involve only small bodies below relevant energy thresholds, and ongoing fireball data repositories confirm low yields so far. Traders assign high confidence due to this surveillance edge, though an undetected meter-scale object airbursting over remote areas remains a low-probability tail risk before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$116,892Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA and ESA planetary defense monitoring through systems like CNEOS Sentry and global optical/radar surveys has identified no near-Earth objects capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, driving the 98.5% market-implied odds for "No." Historical impact frequencies indicate megaton-scale events occur roughly once per decade at most, with none forecasted amid over 90% catalog coverage of larger hazardous asteroids. Recent close approaches involve only small bodies below relevant energy thresholds, and ongoing fireball data repositories confirm low yields so far. Traders assign high confidence due to this surveillance edge, though an undetected meter-scale object airbursting over remote areas remains a low-probability tail risk before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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