NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of releasing 1 megaton or more of kinetic energy in 2026, reflecting exhaustive optical and infrared surveys that have cataloged virtually all objects above roughly 30 meters. Historical impact rates place megaton-scale airbursts or ground strikes at roughly once per several centuries on average, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (about 0.5 megaton) serving as the most recent benchmark. Continuous monitoring by facilities such as Pan-STARRS and the upcoming NEO Surveyor further reduces uncertainty. The only plausible remaining risk involves an undetected sub-30-meter object arriving with minimal prior warning, though advancing detection capabilities make this scenario statistically remote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1 мегатонный удар метеорита в 2026 году?
1 мегатонный удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
$106,033 Объем
$106,033 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$106,033 Объем
$106,033 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of releasing 1 megaton or more of kinetic energy in 2026, reflecting exhaustive optical and infrared surveys that have cataloged virtually all objects above roughly 30 meters. Historical impact rates place megaton-scale airbursts or ground strikes at roughly once per several centuries on average, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (about 0.5 megaton) serving as the most recent benchmark. Continuous monitoring by facilities such as Pan-STARRS and the upcoming NEO Surveyor further reduces uncertainty. The only plausible remaining risk involves an undetected sub-30-meter object arriving with minimal prior warning, though advancing detection capabilities make this scenario statistically remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Объем
$106,033Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of releasing 1 megaton or more of kinetic energy in 2026, reflecting exhaustive optical and infrared surveys that have cataloged virtually all objects above roughly 30 meters. Historical impact rates place megaton-scale airbursts or ground strikes at roughly once per several centuries on average, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (about 0.5 megaton) serving as the most recent benchmark. Continuous monitoring by facilities such as Pan-STARRS and the upcoming NEO Surveyor further reduces uncertainty. The only plausible remaining risk involves an undetected sub-30-meter object arriving with minimal prior warning, though advancing detection capabilities make this scenario statistically remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$106,033Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of releasing 1 megaton or more of kinetic energy in 2026, reflecting exhaustive optical and infrared surveys that have cataloged virtually all objects above roughly 30 meters. Historical impact rates place megaton-scale airbursts or ground strikes at roughly once per several centuries on average, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (about 0.5 megaton) serving as the most recent benchmark. Continuous monitoring by facilities such as Pan-STARRS and the upcoming NEO Surveyor further reduces uncertainty. The only plausible remaining risk involves an undetected sub-30-meter object arriving with minimal prior warning, though advancing detection capabilities make this scenario statistically remote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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