Recent trader sentiment for July 2026 global temperature anomalies centers on the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA and IRI forecasts assigning high probabilities (over 80-98%) of strengthening through mid-2026 and into winter. This ENSO shift, combined with record ocean heat content and elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, is expected to add 0.1–0.2°C or more above the long-term warming trend, pushing monthly anomalies into the 1.10–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Close probabilities across bins reflect uncertainty in exact July peak intensity, model spread on El Niño strength, and potential modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole or volcanic aerosols. Upcoming July model updates and early observational data will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИюль 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
Июль 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
1,10–1,14ºC 48%
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
<1,10ºC 42%
>1,29ºC 42%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 авг. 2026 г.
<1,10ºC
42%
1,10–1,14ºC
48%
1,15–1,19ºC
42%
1,20–1,24ºC
45%
1,25–1,29ºC
40%
>1,29ºC
42%
1,10–1,14ºC 48%
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
<1,10ºC 42%
>1,29ºC 42%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 авг. 2026 г.
<1,10ºC
$83 Объем
42%
1,10–1,14ºC
$63 Объем
48%
1,15–1,19ºC
$47 Объем
42%
1,20–1,24ºC
$45 Объем
45%
1,25–1,29ºC
$84 Объем
40%
>1,29ºC
$54 Объем
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent trader sentiment for July 2026 global temperature anomalies centers on the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA and IRI forecasts assigning high probabilities (over 80-98%) of strengthening through mid-2026 and into winter. This ENSO shift, combined with record ocean heat content and elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, is expected to add 0.1–0.2°C or more above the long-term warming trend, pushing monthly anomalies into the 1.10–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Close probabilities across bins reflect uncertainty in exact July peak intensity, model spread on El Niño strength, and potential modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole or volcanic aerosols. Upcoming July model updates and early observational data will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Объем
$377Дата окончания
1 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent trader sentiment for July 2026 global temperature anomalies centers on the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA and IRI forecasts assigning high probabilities (over 80-98%) of strengthening through mid-2026 and into winter. This ENSO shift, combined with record ocean heat content and elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, is expected to add 0.1–0.2°C or more above the long-term warming trend, pushing monthly anomalies into the 1.10–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Close probabilities across bins reflect uncertainty in exact July peak intensity, model spread on El Niño strength, and potential modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole or volcanic aerosols. Upcoming July model updates and early observational data will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$377Дата окончания
1 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent trader sentiment for July 2026 global temperature anomalies centers on the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA and IRI forecasts assigning high probabilities (over 80-98%) of strengthening through mid-2026 and into winter. This ENSO shift, combined with record ocean heat content and elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, is expected to add 0.1–0.2°C or more above the long-term warming trend, pushing monthly anomalies into the 1.10–1.29°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Close probabilities across bins reflect uncertainty in exact July peak intensity, model spread on El Niño strength, and potential modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole or volcanic aerosols. Upcoming July model updates and early observational data will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы