El Niño conditions, now confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7°C and strengthening into winter, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado frequency for July 2026. This pattern typically reduces Gulf moisture transport and weakens the jet stream configuration needed for strong wind shear and instability across the Plains and Midwest. Historical July averages hover near 120 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA/SPC data, with 2025 recording just 95 amid similar influences. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to sub-130 outcomes, reflecting model consensus on limited supercell potential despite occasional Gulf surges. Key variables include the strength of any mid-level ridge and soil moisture anomalies that could locally enhance or further mute convective triggers through the month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько торнадо в США в июле?
Сколько торнадо в США в июле?
<100 40%
100–129 40%
280–310 25%
310+ 25%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 авг. 2026 г.
<100
40%
100–129
40%
130–159
25%
160–189
25%
190–219
25%
220–249
22%
250–279
21%
280–310
25%
310+
25%
<100 40%
100–129 40%
280–310 25%
310+ 25%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 авг. 2026 г.
<100
$30 Объем
40%
100–129
$44 Объем
40%
130–159
$78 Объем
25%
160–189
$40 Объем
25%
190–219
$41 Объем
25%
220–249
$33 Объем
22%
250–279
$53 Объем
21%
280–310
$131 Объем
25%
310+
$40 Объем
25%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7°C and strengthening into winter, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado frequency for July 2026. This pattern typically reduces Gulf moisture transport and weakens the jet stream configuration needed for strong wind shear and instability across the Plains and Midwest. Historical July averages hover near 120 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA/SPC data, with 2025 recording just 95 amid similar influences. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to sub-130 outcomes, reflecting model consensus on limited supercell potential despite occasional Gulf surges. Key variables include the strength of any mid-level ridge and soil moisture anomalies that could locally enhance or further mute convective triggers through the month.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Объем
$489Дата окончания
1 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7°C and strengthening into winter, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado frequency for July 2026. This pattern typically reduces Gulf moisture transport and weakens the jet stream configuration needed for strong wind shear and instability across the Plains and Midwest. Historical July averages hover near 120 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA/SPC data, with 2025 recording just 95 amid similar influences. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to sub-130 outcomes, reflecting model consensus on limited supercell potential despite occasional Gulf surges. Key variables include the strength of any mid-level ridge and soil moisture anomalies that could locally enhance or further mute convective triggers through the month.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Объем
$489Дата окончания
1 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, now confirmed by NOAA with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7°C and strengthening into winter, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado frequency for July 2026. This pattern typically reduces Gulf moisture transport and weakens the jet stream configuration needed for strong wind shear and instability across the Plains and Midwest. Historical July averages hover near 120 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA/SPC data, with 2025 recording just 95 amid similar influences. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to sub-130 outcomes, reflecting model consensus on limited supercell potential despite occasional Gulf surges. Key variables include the strength of any mid-level ridge and soil moisture anomalies that could locally enhance or further mute convective triggers through the month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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