The Bank of Japan's April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent amid a 6-3 board split and upward revisions to the FY2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8 percent continues to shape trader positioning for the July meeting. Geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict have elevated energy-driven inflation risks, prompting hawkish commentary from dissenting members and May economist surveys assigning a 65 percent probability of a 25-basis-point hike by end-June. These factors support the 58 percent market-implied odds of no change in July, while the 40 percent probability of a 25-basis-point increase reflects residual room for normalization if wage data or underlying price pressures exceed expectations. Growth forecasts were simultaneously trimmed, underscoring the measured pace of tightening and limiting odds of larger moves.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 июл. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
41%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 июл. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$447 Объем
2%
25 bps decrease
$307 Объем
1%
No change
$20 Объем
59%
25 bps increase
$86 Объем
41%
50+ bps increase
$61 Объем
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan's April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent amid a 6-3 board split and upward revisions to the FY2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8 percent continues to shape trader positioning for the July meeting. Geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict have elevated energy-driven inflation risks, prompting hawkish commentary from dissenting members and May economist surveys assigning a 65 percent probability of a 25-basis-point hike by end-June. These factors support the 58 percent market-implied odds of no change in July, while the 40 percent probability of a 25-basis-point increase reflects residual room for normalization if wage data or underlying price pressures exceed expectations. Growth forecasts were simultaneously trimmed, underscoring the measured pace of tightening and limiting odds of larger moves.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Объем
$921Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan's April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent amid a 6-3 board split and upward revisions to the FY2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8 percent continues to shape trader positioning for the July meeting. Geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict have elevated energy-driven inflation risks, prompting hawkish commentary from dissenting members and May economist surveys assigning a 65 percent probability of a 25-basis-point hike by end-June. These factors support the 58 percent market-implied odds of no change in July, while the 40 percent probability of a 25-basis-point increase reflects residual room for normalization if wage data or underlying price pressures exceed expectations. Growth forecasts were simultaneously trimmed, underscoring the measured pace of tightening and limiting odds of larger moves.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$921Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan's April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent amid a 6-3 board split and upward revisions to the FY2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8 percent continues to shape trader positioning for the July meeting. Geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict have elevated energy-driven inflation risks, prompting hawkish commentary from dissenting members and May economist surveys assigning a 65 percent probability of a 25-basis-point hike by end-June. These factors support the 58 percent market-implied odds of no change in July, while the 40 percent probability of a 25-basis-point increase reflects residual room for normalization if wage data or underlying price pressures exceed expectations. Growth forecasts were simultaneously trimmed, underscoring the measured pace of tightening and limiting odds of larger moves.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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