The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 4,600 confirmed cases with rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces, drives the 65% implied probability that a new country will report its first case before October 1. Traders see sustained community transmission, porous borders, and regional conflict as key catalysts likely to produce cross-border spread into neighbors like South Sudan or beyond, echoing historical patterns from prior DRC epidemics. Uganda contained its imported cluster by late July, while a single imported case reached France, underscoring travel risks without triggering wider international chains. Recent case surges and the public health emergency declaration reinforce momentum toward fresh confirmations, though effective border screening and response efforts could still contain the virus within existing borders through early fall.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЭбола: новая страна подтверждена до 1 октября?
Эбола: новая страна подтверждена до 1 октября?
Да
88% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 окт. 2026 г.
Да
88% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 окт. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 4,600 confirmed cases with rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces, drives the 65% implied probability that a new country will report its first case before October 1. Traders see sustained community transmission, porous borders, and regional conflict as key catalysts likely to produce cross-border spread into neighbors like South Sudan or beyond, echoing historical patterns from prior DRC epidemics. Uganda contained its imported cluster by late July, while a single imported case reached France, underscoring travel risks without triggering wider international chains. Recent case surges and the public health emergency declaration reinforce momentum toward fresh confirmations, though effective border screening and response efforts could still contain the virus within existing borders through early fall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Объем
$132Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 4,600 confirmed cases with rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces, drives the 65% implied probability that a new country will report its first case before October 1. Traders see sustained community transmission, porous borders, and regional conflict as key catalysts likely to produce cross-border spread into neighbors like South Sudan or beyond, echoing historical patterns from prior DRC epidemics. Uganda contained its imported cluster by late July, while a single imported case reached France, underscoring travel risks without triggering wider international chains. Recent case surges and the public health emergency declaration reinforce momentum toward fresh confirmations, though effective border screening and response efforts could still contain the virus within existing borders through early fall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Объем
$132Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 4,600 confirmed cases with rapid geographic expansion across multiple provinces, drives the 65% implied probability that a new country will report its first case before October 1. Traders see sustained community transmission, porous borders, and regional conflict as key catalysts likely to produce cross-border spread into neighbors like South Sudan or beyond, echoing historical patterns from prior DRC epidemics. Uganda contained its imported cluster by late July, while a single imported case reached France, underscoring travel risks without triggering wider international chains. Recent case surges and the public health emergency declaration reinforce momentum toward fresh confirmations, though effective border screening and response efforts could still contain the virus within existing borders through early fall.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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