**A broad heatwave across western Europe, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southerly advection of warm air masses, positions mid-30s Celsius as the most likely peak for Paris on August 3.** Official guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows high pressure persisting into early August, supporting daytime maxima near or slightly above seasonal norms (typically 25–28 °C) but elevated by the fourth heat episode of the summer. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited thunderstorm or cloud-cover risks that could cap temperatures, while Paris’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C locally at official observation sites. Recent model runs have stabilized around 34–36 °C outcomes, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 35 °C (45 %) and 36 °C (26.5 %) while assigning low odds to 37 °C+ or sub-34 °C results. The next ECMWF and Météo-France updates, along with any overnight minimum trends that influence daytime recovery, represent the key near-term data points that could shift the distribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Париже 3 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Париже 3 августа?
35°C 45%
36°C 27%
34°C 22%
37°C 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 авг. 2026 г.
32°C or below
2%
33°C
4%
34°C
22%
35°C
45%
36°C
27%
37°C
6%
38°C
2%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
35°C 45%
36°C 27%
34°C 22%
37°C 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 авг. 2026 г.
32°C or below
$152 Объем
2%
33°C
$13 Объем
4%
34°C
$307 Объем
22%
35°C
$224 Объем
45%
36°C
$15 Объем
27%
37°C
$168 Объем
6%
38°C
$381 Объем
2%
39°C
$65 Объем
1%
40°C
$58 Объем
1%
41°C
$84 Объем
<1%
42°C or higher
$499 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A broad heatwave across western Europe, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southerly advection of warm air masses, positions mid-30s Celsius as the most likely peak for Paris on August 3.** Official guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows high pressure persisting into early August, supporting daytime maxima near or slightly above seasonal norms (typically 25–28 °C) but elevated by the fourth heat episode of the summer. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited thunderstorm or cloud-cover risks that could cap temperatures, while Paris’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C locally at official observation sites. Recent model runs have stabilized around 34–36 °C outcomes, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 35 °C (45 %) and 36 °C (26.5 %) while assigning low odds to 37 °C+ or sub-34 °C results. The next ECMWF and Météo-France updates, along with any overnight minimum trends that influence daytime recovery, represent the key near-term data points that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Объем
$1,967Дата окончания
3 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A broad heatwave across western Europe, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southerly advection of warm air masses, positions mid-30s Celsius as the most likely peak for Paris on August 3.** Official guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows high pressure persisting into early August, supporting daytime maxima near or slightly above seasonal norms (typically 25–28 °C) but elevated by the fourth heat episode of the summer. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited thunderstorm or cloud-cover risks that could cap temperatures, while Paris’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C locally at official observation sites. Recent model runs have stabilized around 34–36 °C outcomes, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 35 °C (45 %) and 36 °C (26.5 %) while assigning low odds to 37 °C+ or sub-34 °C results. The next ECMWF and Météo-France updates, along with any overnight minimum trends that influence daytime recovery, represent the key near-term data points that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,967Дата окончания
3 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A broad heatwave across western Europe, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southerly advection of warm air masses, positions mid-30s Celsius as the most likely peak for Paris on August 3.** Official guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows high pressure persisting into early August, supporting daytime maxima near or slightly above seasonal norms (typically 25–28 °C) but elevated by the fourth heat episode of the summer. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited thunderstorm or cloud-cover risks that could cap temperatures, while Paris’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C locally at official observation sites. Recent model runs have stabilized around 34–36 °C outcomes, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 35 °C (45 %) and 36 °C (26.5 %) while assigning low odds to 37 °C+ or sub-34 °C results. The next ECMWF and Météo-France updates, along with any overnight minimum trends that influence daytime recovery, represent the key near-term data points that could shift the distribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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