Singapore's tropical climate under southwest monsoon conditions typically produces daily highs of 31–32°C in early August, with thundery showers often capping afternoon peaks. El Niño development forecast for the second half of 2026 is expected to bring warmer and drier tendencies through October, supporting the market's leading 32°C outcome at 46.5% implied probability alongside elevated chances for 33°C. Official outlooks from Singapore's NEA indicate maximum temperatures most often between 32–34°C, while short-range models show showers as the main variable that could suppress readings to 31°C. Traders appear to weigh these baseline climatological factors and emerging seasonal signals against the narrow two-day forecast window.