Short-term forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and regional models position mid-30s Celsius as the most likely peak for Taipei on August 12, reflecting typical late-summer subtropical conditions with high humidity and limited cloud cover that allow strong daytime heating. Historical August averages place daily highs near 32–34 °C, so the market’s emphasis on 36 °C (39.5 %) and 37 °C (28 %) implies expectations of above-normal warmth driven by stable high-pressure patterns rather than typhoon-related cooling or heavy rain. Recent model runs show modest consensus on minimal precipitation through mid-month, supporting higher maxima, while urban heat-island effects in the city can add 1–2 °C locally. Updated guidance from official agencies in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.