Recent ensemble forecasts from global models like the GFS and ECMWF indicate Beijing highs on August 10 will likely peak in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, aligning with trader emphasis on 33°C and 34°C. Subtle differences hinge on daytime cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and the exact timing of any weak frontal passage, which can suppress or enhance surface heating by 1–2°C. Current mild summer conditions across North China, with recent highs near 31–32°C, provide a baseline, though late-summer variability from monsoon remnants adds uncertainty. Updated model runs and China Meteorological Administration guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.