Recent seismic catalogs show global M5.5+ events typically average 9–12 per week, placing the >9 outcome near the upper end of normal variability. Trader consensus at 44% for >9 reflects this baseline alongside aftershock sequences from the June 8 magnitude 7.8 Philippines event and clusters off California and Chile in early June. USGS monitoring indicates no sustained global swarm or major foreshock activity entering the June 15–21 window, keeping lower counts like 7–9 competitive at combined probabilities near 35%. Model runs and fault monitoring will update probabilities as new data arrive.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько 5,5 и выше землетрясений 15 июня - 21 июня?
>9 43%
9 16%
8 13%
7 12%
≤5
10%
6
10%
7
12%
8
13%
9
16%
>9
43%
>9 43%
9 16%
8 13%
7 12%
≤5
10%
6
10%
7
12%
8
13%
9
16%
>9
43%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Открытие рынка: Jun 12, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent seismic catalogs show global M5.5+ events typically average 9–12 per week, placing the >9 outcome near the upper end of normal variability. Trader consensus at 44% for >9 reflects this baseline alongside aftershock sequences from the June 8 magnitude 7.8 Philippines event and clusters off California and Chile in early June. USGS monitoring indicates no sustained global swarm or major foreshock activity entering the June 15–21 window, keeping lower counts like 7–9 competitive at combined probabilities near 35%. Model runs and fault monitoring will update probabilities as new data arrive.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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