Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes and the rapid March selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts, markets now price the next leadership change as unlikely before mid-2027. Mojtaba’s appointments of hardline loyalists to security and military posts signal continuity in a theocratic system under ongoing regional conflict and a U.S.-Iran ceasefire set to expire in August 2026. Traders weigh risks from renewed escalation, suppressed domestic protests over economic collapse, and potential internal power struggles within the IRGC and clerical bodies against the regime’s demonstrated ability to consolidate quickly after the prior transition. No major scheduled votes or institutional deadlines currently point to imminent further change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$23,639,285 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
22 августа
<1%
31 августа
1%
30 сентября
5%
31 октября
9%
30 ноября
11%
31 декабря
17%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
$23,639,285 Объем
22 августа
$60,148 Объем
<1%
31 августа
$1,195,174 Объем
1%
30 сентября
$466,178 Объем
5%
31 октября
$19,392 Объем
9%
30 ноября
$14,708 Объем
11%
31 декабря
$4,034,269 Объем
17%
30 июня 2027 года
$241,225 Объем
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes and the rapid March selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts, markets now price the next leadership change as unlikely before mid-2027. Mojtaba’s appointments of hardline loyalists to security and military posts signal continuity in a theocratic system under ongoing regional conflict and a U.S.-Iran ceasefire set to expire in August 2026. Traders weigh risks from renewed escalation, suppressed domestic protests over economic collapse, and potential internal power struggles within the IRGC and clerical bodies against the regime’s demonstrated ability to consolidate quickly after the prior transition. No major scheduled votes or institutional deadlines currently point to imminent further change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Объем
$23,639,285Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes and the rapid March selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts, markets now price the next leadership change as unlikely before mid-2027. Mojtaba’s appointments of hardline loyalists to security and military posts signal continuity in a theocratic system under ongoing regional conflict and a U.S.-Iran ceasefire set to expire in August 2026. Traders weigh risks from renewed escalation, suppressed domestic protests over economic collapse, and potential internal power struggles within the IRGC and clerical bodies against the regime’s demonstrated ability to consolidate quickly after the prior transition. No major scheduled votes or institutional deadlines currently point to imminent further change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$23,639,285Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes and the rapid March selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts, markets now price the next leadership change as unlikely before mid-2027. Mojtaba’s appointments of hardline loyalists to security and military posts signal continuity in a theocratic system under ongoing regional conflict and a U.S.-Iran ceasefire set to expire in August 2026. Traders weigh risks from renewed escalation, suppressed domestic protests over economic collapse, and potential internal power struggles within the IRGC and clerical bodies against the regime’s demonstrated ability to consolidate quickly after the prior transition. No major scheduled votes or institutional deadlines currently point to imminent further change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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