Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 US-Israel conflict with Iran continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace restrictions. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July amid strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening by mid-August after the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown. Recent developments include renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian threats targeting regional energy infrastructure, and US economic measures aimed at isolating Tehran. Regulators maintain elevated risk advisories, while carriers limit operations due to proxy threats. Scheduled diplomatic and military contacts in the coming weeks could influence escalation risks and any future closure decisions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$27,300,755 Объем
14 июл. 2026 г.
31 августа
4%
30 сентября
10%
$27,300,755 Объем
31 августа
$1,268,290 Объем
4%
30 сентября
$585 Объем
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 US-Israel conflict with Iran continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace restrictions. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July amid strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening by mid-August after the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown. Recent developments include renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian threats targeting regional energy infrastructure, and US economic measures aimed at isolating Tehran. Regulators maintain elevated risk advisories, while carriers limit operations due to proxy threats. Scheduled diplomatic and military contacts in the coming weeks could influence escalation risks and any future closure decisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Объем
$27,300,755Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 US-Israel conflict with Iran continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace restrictions. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July amid strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening by mid-August after the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown. Recent developments include renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian threats targeting regional energy infrastructure, and US economic measures aimed at isolating Tehran. Regulators maintain elevated risk advisories, while carriers limit operations due to proxy threats. Scheduled diplomatic and military contacts in the coming weeks could influence escalation risks and any future closure decisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$27,300,755Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 US-Israel conflict with Iran continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace restrictions. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July amid strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening by mid-August after the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown. Recent developments include renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian threats targeting regional energy infrastructure, and US economic measures aimed at isolating Tehran. Regulators maintain elevated risk advisories, while carriers limit operations due to proxy threats. Scheduled diplomatic and military contacts in the coming weeks could influence escalation risks and any future closure decisions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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