Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Milan overnight lows of 20–22°C on August 24 under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and minimal radiative cooling. Thunderstorm chances rise later in the period but are unlikely to produce sharp temperature drops, while recent observations show August minima near 19°C. The near-even split between the 22°C-or-higher and colder bins reflects remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and any localized cloud cover that could alter the daily minimum by 1–2°C. Updated high-resolution runs and official Italian meteorological guidance expected over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the minimum settles above or below 20°C.