Recent high-pressure dominance over western Europe has delivered clear skies and light winds to Paris, enhancing nocturnal radiative cooling and anchoring the June 15 minimum near 12–13 °C according to the latest Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble guidance. Daytime maxima of 23–28 °C have left a relatively dry boundary layer that favors efficient heat loss after sunset, consistent with typical mid-June climatology of 11–16 °C lows. Model spreads remain tight, with modest differences in humidity advection and cloud timing creating roughly balanced odds between the two leading bins while sharply discounting sub-11 °C or 14 °C+ outcomes absent an unexpected frontal shift. Traders are weighting the most recent model runs and historical analogs for this short-horizon resolution.