Shenzhen's late-September minimum temperatures hinge on the interplay between the weakening East Asian monsoon, subtropical high-pressure ridging, and any approaching frontal systems or tropical moisture, which forecasters from the China Meteorological Administration track via ensemble models. With market-implied probabilities clustered near 41–42% across the 22 °C-or-below, 27 °C, and 32 °C-or-higher bins, traders reflect genuine forecast spread: some runs favor clearer skies and radiative cooling toward the mid-20s, while others keep nocturnal temperatures elevated by cloud cover or urban heat-island effects. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of the September 23 observation window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Шэньчжэне 23 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Шэньчжэне 23 сентября?
32°C или выше 72%
22°C или ниже 64%
27°C 42%
23°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 сент. 2026 г.
22°C или ниже
64%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
22%
26°C
23%
27°C
42%
28°C
39%
29°C
8%
30°C
39%
31°C
39%
32°C или выше
72%
32°C или выше 72%
22°C или ниже 64%
27°C 42%
23°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 сент. 2026 г.
22°C или ниже
$0 Объем
64%
23°C
$0 Объем
39%
24°C
$0 Объем
39%
25°C
$0 Объем
22%
26°C
$0 Объем
23%
27°C
$7 Объем
42%
28°C
$0 Объем
39%
29°C
$0 Объем
8%
30°C
$0 Объем
39%
31°C
$0 Объем
39%
32°C или выше
$0 Объем
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Shenzhen's late-September minimum temperatures hinge on the interplay between the weakening East Asian monsoon, subtropical high-pressure ridging, and any approaching frontal systems or tropical moisture, which forecasters from the China Meteorological Administration track via ensemble models. With market-implied probabilities clustered near 41–42% across the 22 °C-or-below, 27 °C, and 32 °C-or-higher bins, traders reflect genuine forecast spread: some runs favor clearer skies and radiative cooling toward the mid-20s, while others keep nocturnal temperatures elevated by cloud cover or urban heat-island effects. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of the September 23 observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$7Дата окончания
23 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszКто определяет исход
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Shenzhen's late-September minimum temperatures hinge on the interplay between the weakening East Asian monsoon, subtropical high-pressure ridging, and any approaching frontal systems or tropical moisture, which forecasters from the China Meteorological Administration track via ensemble models. With market-implied probabilities clustered near 41–42% across the 22 °C-or-below, 27 °C, and 32 °C-or-higher bins, traders reflect genuine forecast spread: some runs favor clearer skies and radiative cooling toward the mid-20s, while others keep nocturnal temperatures elevated by cloud cover or urban heat-island effects. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of the September 23 observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$7Дата окончания
23 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszКто определяет исход
0x69c47de9d...Shenzhen's late-September minimum temperatures hinge on the interplay between the weakening East Asian monsoon, subtropical high-pressure ridging, and any approaching frontal systems or tropical moisture, which forecasters from the China Meteorological Administration track via ensemble models. With market-implied probabilities clustered near 41–42% across the 22 °C-or-below, 27 °C, and 32 °C-or-higher bins, traders reflect genuine forecast spread: some runs favor clearer skies and radiative cooling toward the mid-20s, while others keep nocturnal temperatures elevated by cloud cover or urban heat-island effects. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of the September 23 observation window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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