No natural disaster meeting strict thresholds—such as a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 10-kiloton meteor airburst, or Category 5 landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale—has occurred through mid-May 2026. USGS records show only moderate M7+ events with limited impacts, while Smithsonian volcanism data confirm no large eruptions and NASA fireball monitoring reports no significant airbursts. Colorado State University’s seasonal forecast anticipates below-average Atlantic activity amid developing La Niña conditions, with the official NOAA outlook due soon. These factors underpin the 74% market-implied probability for “No,” though uncertainties remain around late-year seismic activity and potential hurricane intensification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$218,667 Объем
$218,667 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$218,667 Объем
$218,667 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No natural disaster meeting strict thresholds—such as a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 10-kiloton meteor airburst, or Category 5 landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale—has occurred through mid-May 2026. USGS records show only moderate M7+ events with limited impacts, while Smithsonian volcanism data confirm no large eruptions and NASA fireball monitoring reports no significant airbursts. Colorado State University’s seasonal forecast anticipates below-average Atlantic activity amid developing La Niña conditions, with the official NOAA outlook due soon. These factors underpin the 74% market-implied probability for “No,” though uncertainties remain around late-year seismic activity and potential hurricane intensification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$218,667Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No natural disaster meeting strict thresholds—such as a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 10-kiloton meteor airburst, or Category 5 landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale—has occurred through mid-May 2026. USGS records show only moderate M7+ events with limited impacts, while Smithsonian volcanism data confirm no large eruptions and NASA fireball monitoring reports no significant airbursts. Colorado State University’s seasonal forecast anticipates below-average Atlantic activity amid developing La Niña conditions, with the official NOAA outlook due soon. These factors underpin the 74% market-implied probability for “No,” though uncertainties remain around late-year seismic activity and potential hurricane intensification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$218,667Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No natural disaster meeting strict thresholds—such as a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 10-kiloton meteor airburst, or Category 5 landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale—has occurred through mid-May 2026. USGS records show only moderate M7+ events with limited impacts, while Smithsonian volcanism data confirm no large eruptions and NASA fireball monitoring reports no significant airbursts. Colorado State University’s seasonal forecast anticipates below-average Atlantic activity amid developing La Niña conditions, with the official NOAA outlook due soon. These factors underpin the 74% market-implied probability for “No,” though uncertainties remain around late-year seismic activity and potential hurricane intensification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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