The record $360 million domestic opening for Spider-Man: Brand New Day has established a steep baseline that drives the market's strong preference for a sub-$180 million second weekend at 67% implied probability. Typical holdover patterns for tentpole superhero films—with drops of 50% or more after historic debuts—combined with the absence of major new competition this frame, underpin trader consensus around a sizable decline. Precursor indicators like Thursday previews and Friday sales already signaled front-loaded demand, while critical reception near 90% and strong word-of-mouth offer limited cushion against the usual post-opening drop-off. Key catalysts ahead include actual Friday estimates and any late marketing pushes that could moderate the fall.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<180m 67%
200-210 млн 10%
220 млн+ 9%
180-190 млн 8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 авг. 2026 г.
<180m
67%
180-190 млн
8%
190-200m
8%
200-210 млн
10%
210–220 млн
8%
220 млн+
9%
<180m 67%
200-210 млн 10%
220 млн+ 9%
180-190 млн 8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 авг. 2026 г.
<180m
$2,143 Объем
67%
180-190 млн
$369 Объем
8%
190-200m
$369 Объем
8%
200-210 млн
$435 Объем
10%
210–220 млн
$614 Объем
8%
220 млн+
$1,971 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The record $360 million domestic opening for Spider-Man: Brand New Day has established a steep baseline that drives the market's strong preference for a sub-$180 million second weekend at 67% implied probability. Typical holdover patterns for tentpole superhero films—with drops of 50% or more after historic debuts—combined with the absence of major new competition this frame, underpin trader consensus around a sizable decline. Precursor indicators like Thursday previews and Friday sales already signaled front-loaded demand, while critical reception near 90% and strong word-of-mouth offer limited cushion against the usual post-opening drop-off. Key catalysts ahead include actual Friday estimates and any late marketing pushes that could moderate the fall.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Объем
$5,900Дата окончания
9 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The record $360 million domestic opening for Spider-Man: Brand New Day has established a steep baseline that drives the market's strong preference for a sub-$180 million second weekend at 67% implied probability. Typical holdover patterns for tentpole superhero films—with drops of 50% or more after historic debuts—combined with the absence of major new competition this frame, underpin trader consensus around a sizable decline. Precursor indicators like Thursday previews and Friday sales already signaled front-loaded demand, while critical reception near 90% and strong word-of-mouth offer limited cushion against the usual post-opening drop-off. Key catalysts ahead include actual Friday estimates and any late marketing pushes that could moderate the fall.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$5,900Дата окончания
9 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The record $360 million domestic opening for Spider-Man: Brand New Day has established a steep baseline that drives the market's strong preference for a sub-$180 million second weekend at 67% implied probability. Typical holdover patterns for tentpole superhero films—with drops of 50% or more after historic debuts—combined with the absence of major new competition this frame, underpin trader consensus around a sizable decline. Precursor indicators like Thursday previews and Friday sales already signaled front-loaded demand, while critical reception near 90% and strong word-of-mouth offer limited cushion against the usual post-opening drop-off. Key catalysts ahead include actual Friday estimates and any late marketing pushes that could moderate the fall.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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