Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record-breaking $360M domestic opening and powerful word-of-mouth have fueled exceptional retention, yet typical blockbuster drops of 50-60% from its massive second weekend have locked in third-frame projections of $57-72M. Strong critical reception, repeat viewings driven by Tom Holland and Zendaya's appeal, and minimal direct competition have supported the film's legs, aligning with the market's 96% implied probability for under $72M. An upset pushing above that threshold would require unusually resilient audience turnout or last-minute promotional boosts, though historical patterns for similar tentpoles make such a surge unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКасса третьего уик-энда «Человек-паук: Новый день»
Касса третьего уик-энда «Человек-паук: Новый день»
<72 млн 95.9%
79-86 млн 4.9%
72-79 млн 3.1%
93 млн+ <1%
$43,489 Объем
$43,489 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
<72 млн
96%
72-79 млн
3%
79-86 млн
5%
86-93 млн
<1%
93 млн+
<1%
<72 млн 95.9%
79-86 млн 4.9%
72-79 млн 3.1%
93 млн+ <1%
$43,489 Объем
$43,489 Объем
16 авг. 2026 г.
<72 млн
$26,302 Объем
96%
72-79 млн
$8,225 Объем
3%
79-86 млн
$5,970 Объем
5%
86-93 млн
$1,577 Объем
<1%
93 млн+
$1,415 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record-breaking $360M domestic opening and powerful word-of-mouth have fueled exceptional retention, yet typical blockbuster drops of 50-60% from its massive second weekend have locked in third-frame projections of $57-72M. Strong critical reception, repeat viewings driven by Tom Holland and Zendaya's appeal, and minimal direct competition have supported the film's legs, aligning with the market's 96% implied probability for under $72M. An upset pushing above that threshold would require unusually resilient audience turnout or last-minute promotional boosts, though historical patterns for similar tentpoles make such a surge unlikely.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Объем
$43,489Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record-breaking $360M domestic opening and powerful word-of-mouth have fueled exceptional retention, yet typical blockbuster drops of 50-60% from its massive second weekend have locked in third-frame projections of $57-72M. Strong critical reception, repeat viewings driven by Tom Holland and Zendaya's appeal, and minimal direct competition have supported the film's legs, aligning with the market's 96% implied probability for under $72M. An upset pushing above that threshold would require unusually resilient audience turnout or last-minute promotional boosts, though historical patterns for similar tentpoles make such a surge unlikely.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$43,489Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day's record-breaking $360M domestic opening and powerful word-of-mouth have fueled exceptional retention, yet typical blockbuster drops of 50-60% from its massive second weekend have locked in third-frame projections of $57-72M. Strong critical reception, repeat viewings driven by Tom Holland and Zendaya's appeal, and minimal direct competition have supported the film's legs, aligning with the market's 96% implied probability for under $72M. An upset pushing above that threshold would require unusually resilient audience turnout or last-minute promotional boosts, though historical patterns for similar tentpoles make such a surge unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 72m?
97%
Будет ли общий внутренний валовой доход фильма «Человек-паук: Совершенно новый день» находиться в диапазоне от 800 до 900 миллионов к 31 августа?
56%
Да
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?
55%
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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