Iranian authorities imposed an 88-day near-total internet blackout beginning January 8, 2026, in response to nationwide protests over economic collapse, with connectivity dropping below 5% of normal levels; the shutdown intensified after U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28 and ended with partial restoration in late May following President Masoud Pezeshkian’s order. Monitoring groups documented the longest recorded national outage, relying on BGP withdrawals, traffic throttling, and a shift toward whitelisted domestic networks. As of September 2026, access remains restricted with persistent blocks on major platforms, while lawmakers advance a new cyberspace regulation bill aimed at formalizing tighter controls and a national information network. Trader consensus on future total blackouts by late-2026 dates reflects the economic costs of prior shutdowns, the precedent of gradual reconnection amid de-escalation, and risks tied to renewed protests or security escalations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$249,128 Объем
30 сентября
1%
31 декабря
20%
$249,128 Объем
30 сентября
1%
31 декабря
20%
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Iranian authorities imposed an 88-day near-total internet blackout beginning January 8, 2026, in response to nationwide protests over economic collapse, with connectivity dropping below 5% of normal levels; the shutdown intensified after U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28 and ended with partial restoration in late May following President Masoud Pezeshkian’s order. Monitoring groups documented the longest recorded national outage, relying on BGP withdrawals, traffic throttling, and a shift toward whitelisted domestic networks. As of September 2026, access remains restricted with persistent blocks on major platforms, while lawmakers advance a new cyberspace regulation bill aimed at formalizing tighter controls and a national information network. Trader consensus on future total blackouts by late-2026 dates reflects the economic costs of prior shutdowns, the precedent of gradual reconnection amid de-escalation, and risks tied to renewed protests or security escalations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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