Traders have overwhelmingly backed Anthropic to hold the strongest AI model by the end of May, reflected in its 94% implied probability. This positioning stems from the company's recent large language model releases that delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks, safety alignment, and real-world developer usage relative to rivals. Google and OpenAI trail far behind at 3.5% and 1.0%, respectively, as their latest updates have not yet produced comparable capability jumps in independent evaluations. The short timeframe to resolution leaves little room for major reversals, though any surprise model launch or benchmark breakthrough from competitors could still narrow the gap before the market settles.