Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 due to the absence of advanced bilateral negotiations or scheduled signing ceremonies in the final weeks of the window. Kazakhstan formalized accession in early 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, but subsequent U.S. diplomatic outreach—primarily public statements in May 2026 linking potential expansions to an Iran-related framework—has produced exploratory discussions without verified breakthroughs. Persistent structural barriers, including Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Palestinian state progress and stalled talks with Syria and Lebanon amid ongoing regional security concerns, continue to shape timelines. An unanticipated announcement from a smaller state with preexisting ties remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
3% вероятность
$53,711 Объем
$53,711 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$53,711 Объем
$53,711 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 due to the absence of advanced bilateral negotiations or scheduled signing ceremonies in the final weeks of the window. Kazakhstan formalized accession in early 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, but subsequent U.S. diplomatic outreach—primarily public statements in May 2026 linking potential expansions to an Iran-related framework—has produced exploratory discussions without verified breakthroughs. Persistent structural barriers, including Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Palestinian state progress and stalled talks with Syria and Lebanon amid ongoing regional security concerns, continue to shape timelines. An unanticipated announcement from a smaller state with preexisting ties remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Объем
$53,711Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 due to the absence of advanced bilateral negotiations or scheduled signing ceremonies in the final weeks of the window. Kazakhstan formalized accession in early 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, but subsequent U.S. diplomatic outreach—primarily public statements in May 2026 linking potential expansions to an Iran-related framework—has produced exploratory discussions without verified breakthroughs. Persistent structural barriers, including Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Palestinian state progress and stalled talks with Syria and Lebanon amid ongoing regional security concerns, continue to shape timelines. An unanticipated announcement from a smaller state with preexisting ties remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$53,711Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 due to the absence of advanced bilateral negotiations or scheduled signing ceremonies in the final weeks of the window. Kazakhstan formalized accession in early 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, but subsequent U.S. diplomatic outreach—primarily public statements in May 2026 linking potential expansions to an Iran-related framework—has produced exploratory discussions without verified breakthroughs. Persistent structural barriers, including Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Palestinian state progress and stalled talks with Syria and Lebanon amid ongoing regional security concerns, continue to shape timelines. An unanticipated announcement from a smaller state with preexisting ties remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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