Heightened legal scrutiny and ongoing conflict-of-interest concerns are anchoring trader consensus at a 75% implied probability that Sam Altman will not receive OpenAI equity by June 30. Court filings from the Musk lawsuit, disclosed on May 13, revealed Altman’s more than $2 billion in holdings in companies transacting with OpenAI, including a $1.65 billion stake in Helion Energy, intensifying self-dealing claims from attorneys general and congressional investigators. OpenAI’s October 2025 restructuring into a public-benefit corporation explicitly excluded Altman from equity despite Microsoft’s 27% position and employee share sales, while the compressed six-week window to June 30 leaves insufficient time for board approval, regulatory clearances in Delaware and California, and formal grant amid the active trial. These dynamics reinforce the market’s view that any equity award remains unlikely before the deadline.