Recent UNEP assessments confirming that the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded in the coming years, combined with persistent global CO2 emission rates near 42 Gt annually and a remaining carbon budget of roughly 130 GtCO2, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring no change in the Climate Clock deadline by year-end. Observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C through 2025, with linear extrapolations from multiple datasets projecting a breach around 2028–2030 absent sharp near-term reductions. Market-implied odds reflect this evidence-based stability in carbon budget calculations, which update on annual or multi-year cycles. A major downward revision in emissions or an unexpected expansion of the budget estimate could still shift the displayed timeline before December 31, though current trends and policy inertia make such developments improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИзменится ли крайний срок климатических часов на 1,5°C на...?
Изменится ли крайний срок климатических часов на 1,5°C на...?
10% вероятность
$13,934 Объем
$13,934 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
10% вероятность
$13,934 Объем
$13,934 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent UNEP assessments confirming that the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded in the coming years, combined with persistent global CO2 emission rates near 42 Gt annually and a remaining carbon budget of roughly 130 GtCO2, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring no change in the Climate Clock deadline by year-end. Observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C through 2025, with linear extrapolations from multiple datasets projecting a breach around 2028–2030 absent sharp near-term reductions. Market-implied odds reflect this evidence-based stability in carbon budget calculations, which update on annual or multi-year cycles. A major downward revision in emissions or an unexpected expansion of the budget estimate could still shift the displayed timeline before December 31, though current trends and policy inertia make such developments improbable.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Открытие рынка: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Объем
$13,934Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://climateclock.worldКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent UNEP assessments confirming that the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded in the coming years, combined with persistent global CO2 emission rates near 42 Gt annually and a remaining carbon budget of roughly 130 GtCO2, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring no change in the Climate Clock deadline by year-end. Observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C through 2025, with linear extrapolations from multiple datasets projecting a breach around 2028–2030 absent sharp near-term reductions. Market-implied odds reflect this evidence-based stability in carbon budget calculations, which update on annual or multi-year cycles. A major downward revision in emissions or an unexpected expansion of the budget estimate could still shift the displayed timeline before December 31, though current trends and policy inertia make such developments improbable.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Объем
$13,934Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://climateclock.worldКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent UNEP assessments confirming that the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded in the coming years, combined with persistent global CO2 emission rates near 42 Gt annually and a remaining carbon budget of roughly 130 GtCO2, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring no change in the Climate Clock deadline by year-end. Observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C through 2025, with linear extrapolations from multiple datasets projecting a breach around 2028–2030 absent sharp near-term reductions. Market-implied odds reflect this evidence-based stability in carbon budget calculations, which update on annual or multi-year cycles. A major downward revision in emissions or an unexpected expansion of the budget estimate could still shift the displayed timeline before December 31, though current trends and policy inertia make such developments improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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