A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching approximately +2.7°C by mid-August 2026—the highest on record for the season—represents the dominant driver elevating market-implied odds for August global temperature anomalies above 1.45°C. Official monitoring from NOAA and dynamical models project further strengthening toward a peak near +4°C by late 2026, adding substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend. July 2026 already reached 1.56°C above the 1850–1900 baseline per Berkeley Earth data, the second-warmest July on record, with ocean heat content at record levels. This combination, alongside the typical lag in global temperature response to El Niño peaks, supports trader consensus around elevated outcomes while leaving room for model spread and short-term variability to influence final monthly averages.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
>1.45ºC 44%
1.38–1.41ºC 25%
1.42–1.45ºC 23%
1.34–1.37ºC 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
3%
1.30–1.33ºC
3%
1.34–1.37ºC
11%
1.38–1.41ºC
25%
1.42–1.45ºC
23%
>1.45ºC
44%
>1.45ºC 44%
1.38–1.41ºC 25%
1.42–1.45ºC 23%
1.34–1.37ºC 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$51 ปริมาณ
3%
1.30–1.33ºC
$514 ปริมาณ
3%
1.34–1.37ºC
$1,252 ปริมาณ
11%
1.38–1.41ºC
$34 ปริมาณ
25%
1.42–1.45ºC
$513 ปริมาณ
23%
>1.45ºC
$171 ปริมาณ
44%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching approximately +2.7°C by mid-August 2026—the highest on record for the season—represents the dominant driver elevating market-implied odds for August global temperature anomalies above 1.45°C. Official monitoring from NOAA and dynamical models project further strengthening toward a peak near +4°C by late 2026, adding substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend. July 2026 already reached 1.56°C above the 1850–1900 baseline per Berkeley Earth data, the second-warmest July on record, with ocean heat content at record levels. This combination, alongside the typical lag in global temperature response to El Niño peaks, supports trader consensus around elevated outcomes while leaving room for model spread and short-term variability to influence final monthly averages.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,535วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching approximately +2.7°C by mid-August 2026—the highest on record for the season—represents the dominant driver elevating market-implied odds for August global temperature anomalies above 1.45°C. Official monitoring from NOAA and dynamical models project further strengthening toward a peak near +4°C by late 2026, adding substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend. July 2026 already reached 1.56°C above the 1850–1900 baseline per Berkeley Earth data, the second-warmest July on record, with ocean heat content at record levels. This combination, alongside the typical lag in global temperature response to El Niño peaks, supports trader consensus around elevated outcomes while leaving room for model spread and short-term variability to influence final monthly averages.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,535วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching approximately +2.7°C by mid-August 2026—the highest on record for the season—represents the dominant driver elevating market-implied odds for August global temperature anomalies above 1.45°C. Official monitoring from NOAA and dynamical models project further strengthening toward a peak near +4°C by late 2026, adding substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend. July 2026 already reached 1.56°C above the 1850–1900 baseline per Berkeley Earth data, the second-warmest July on record, with ocean heat content at record levels. This combination, alongside the typical lag in global temperature response to El Niño peaks, supports trader consensus around elevated outcomes while leaving room for model spread and short-term variability to influence final monthly averages.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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