The Bank of Canada's overnight rate has remained steady at 2.25% through multiple 2026 decisions, including the July 15 hold, as the central bank assesses an economy operating below capacity amid modest GDP growth and unemployment near 6.5-6.8%. Economists at major banks and the Parliamentary Budget Officer widely expect the policy rate to stay unchanged through year-end, with the BoC looking through temporary energy-driven inflation pressures while core measures ease toward the 2% target. Market-implied odds and the Q2 2026 Market Participants Survey reflect this consensus, pricing limited tightening risk before 2027 and positioning the current rate near the lower end of the neutral range. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2 and December 9 rate announcements plus the October Monetary Policy Report, which could shift sentiment if growth or inflation data surprise materially.