Flávio Bolsonaro’s commanding position in Minas Gerais second-round betting reflects his first-round victory there with 48.2% to Lula’s 43.3%, part of a broader right-wing surge that delivered him 47% nationally on October 4 and advanced him to the October 25 runoff. The Liberal Party candidate benefited from strong support in the bellwether state’s wealthier and evangelical segments, plus expected consolidation of votes from eliminated right-leaning contenders. Lula’s narrower showing in Minas, a state that has backed every national winner since 1989, has left traders pricing limited comeback prospects. While late developments such as turnout shifts, endorsements, or campaign events could narrow the gap, the first-round results and regional momentum have produced the current trader consensus favoring a decisive Flávio lead in the state.