Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding lead in California's safely Democratic 12th Congressional District, a progressive East Bay stronghold with a D+39 partisan lean where Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory under the top-two primary system. Simon's $1.1 million fundraising haul vastly outpaces Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, following Republican Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal that ensures two Democrats advance from the June 2 primary to the November general election. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid/Safe Democratic status. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, health event affecting Simon, or unexpected primary upset, though such barriers remain steep amid absent GOP opposition.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$33,778 ปริมาณ
$33,778 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$33,778 ปริมาณ
$33,778 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,165 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$13,612 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding lead in California's safely Democratic 12th Congressional District, a progressive East Bay stronghold with a D+39 partisan lean where Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory under the top-two primary system. Simon's $1.1 million fundraising haul vastly outpaces Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, following Republican Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal that ensures two Democrats advance from the June 2 primary to the November general election. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid/Safe Democratic status. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, health event affecting Simon, or unexpected primary upset, though such barriers remain steep amid absent GOP opposition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,778วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding lead in California's safely Democratic 12th Congressional District, a progressive East Bay stronghold with a D+39 partisan lean where Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory under the top-two primary system. Simon's $1.1 million fundraising haul vastly outpaces Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, following Republican Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal that ensures two Democrats advance from the June 2 primary to the November general election. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid/Safe Democratic status. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, health event affecting Simon, or unexpected primary upset, though such barriers remain steep amid absent GOP opposition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,778วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding lead in California's safely Democratic 12th Congressional District, a progressive East Bay stronghold with a D+39 partisan lean where Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory under the top-two primary system. Simon's $1.1 million fundraising haul vastly outpaces Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, following Republican Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal that ensures two Democrats advance from the June 2 primary to the November general election. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball confirm Solid/Safe Democratic status. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, health event affecting Simon, or unexpected primary upset, though such barriers remain steep amid absent GOP opposition.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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