**Recent FBI searches and device seizures in the sexual misconduct probe against former Rep. Eric Swalwell have intensified scrutiny but have not produced charges, supporting the market's 79.5% "No" consensus on a filing by September 30.** Allegations of sexual assault and misconduct by multiple women surfaced in April 2026, prompting Swalwell's resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race. State probes by the Manhattan DA and Los Angeles Sheriff's Department began then, while the federal investigation—now focusing on possible violations of 18 U.S.C. § 242 (civil rights deprivations under color of law)—escalated with warrants executed at San Francisco International Airport and his Washington, D.C., residence on August 16–17. Agents seized an iPhone and MacBook Pro, and sources confirm interviews with accusers. No indictments or charging decisions have been announced despite months of prior review. Federal cases against former members of Congress typically require evidence analysis, grand jury proceedings, and DOJ coordination, making a resolution within the remaining six weeks from August 22 unlikely absent an unusually rapid turnaround. Separate older matters, including the declassified 2010s China-related files released in mid-August and a 2025 mortgage referral, have not yielded charges and appear decoupled from the current timeline. Traders appear to weigh the active but early-stage federal effort against historical patterns of deliberate pacing in such investigations, viewing an imminent charge as improbable before the September 30 cutoff.