Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District, advanced from the October 4 first round with 49.93% of valid votes and now faces Leandro Grass (PT) in the October 25 runoff. Pre-election surveys from Datafolha, Real Time, and Correio/Opinião consistently showed her leading by double digits in both first-round and head-to-head scenarios, reflecting her coalition backing, regional strength across most electoral zones, and support among key voter groups. Traders assign her a 98.6% implied probability of winning overall. A decisive Grass victory would require unusually high opposition turnout, broad consolidation of remaining first-round votes, or unforeseen late developments that shift voter preferences before the second round.