Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJuly 7 70%
July 9 4.8%
July 8 5%
July 6 3.7%
$204,789 ปริมาณ
$204,789 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
July 2
1%
July 3
3%
July 4
<1%
July 5
<1%
July 6
4%
July 7
70%
July 8
5%
July 9
5%
July 10
1%
July 11
<1%
July 12
<1%
July 13
3%
July 14
<1%
July 15
<1%
July 16
1%
July 17
<1%
July 18
2%
July 19
<1%
July 20
<1%
July 21
<1%
July 22
<1%
July 23
<1%
July 24
<1%
July 25
<1%
July 26
<1%
July 27
<1%
July 28
<1%
July 29
<1%
July 30
<1%
July 31
<1%
Not released before August
2%
July 7 70%
July 9 4.8%
July 8 5%
July 6 3.7%
$204,789 ปริมาณ
$204,789 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
July 2
$4,728 ปริมาณ
1%
July 3
$1,678 ปริมาณ
3%
July 4
$3,050 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 5
$1,514 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 6
$3,295 ปริมาณ
4%
July 7
$60,970 ปริมาณ
70%
July 8
$8,129 ปริมาณ
5%
July 9
$24,597 ปริมาณ
5%
July 10
$7,782 ปริมาณ
1%
July 11
$3,415 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 12
$653 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 13
$1,786 ปริมาณ
3%
July 14
$1,862 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 15
$2,418 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 16
$12,534 ปริมาณ
1%
July 17
$2,857 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 18
$708 ปริมาณ
2%
July 19
$721 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 20
$536 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 21
$952 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 22
$524 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 23
$1,791 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 24
$1,553 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 25
$390 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 26
$354 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 27
$740 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 28
$1,953 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 29
$682 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 30
$2,809 ปริมาณ
<1%
July 31
$1,730 ปริมาณ
<1%
Not released before August
$12,171 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$204,789วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$204,789วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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