Tesla’s lack of required California autonomous vehicle permits continues to anchor trader sentiment against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company holds only a charter-party carrier permit and a DMV testing authorization that mandates safety drivers, with no applications filed for unsupervised deployment or CPUC passenger-service authority. Recent expansions by Waymo across 18 counties highlight the multi-step regulatory pathway Tesla has not pursued, while its Cybercab and FSD unsupervised operations remain limited to Texas and Florida. New rules such as SB 1246 on emergency response further underscore compliance burdens. With roughly ten weeks remaining and no announced filings or testing milestones in the state, the 87.5% market-implied odds for “No” reflect the realistic timeline for approvals and commercial readiness.