Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, at a 74.5% implied probability, propelled by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on CFO Sarah Friar's internal warnings that the aggressive timeline is unfeasible amid missed revenue and user growth targets, plus over $600 billion in compute commitments through 2030. Sam Altman's push for a Q4 2026 listing clashes with these financial realities and the absence of an S-1 filing, while ongoing Elon Musk lawsuit closing arguments—expected to yield a verdict next week—add leadership and structural risks. If an IPO materializes, traders price in trillion-dollar valuations reflecting OpenAI's $25 billion annualized revenue run rate and AI dominance, though competitive pressures from Anthropic and regulatory scrutiny temper mid-tier outcomes. Watch for banker talks or revised Microsoft partnership terms as key catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วไม่มีการนำหุ้นเข้าตลาดหลักทรัพย์ภายในวันที่ 31 ธันวาคม 2026 76%
1.5T+ 10.6%
500–750 พันล้าน 3.4%
1.25T–1.5T 3.4%
$1,637,985 ปริมาณ
$1,637,985 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
1%
500–750 พันล้าน
3%
750 พันล้าน – 1 ล้านล้าน
2%
1 ล้านล้าน–1.25 ล้านล้าน
2%
1.25T–1.5T
3%
1.5T+
11%
ไม่มีการนำหุ้นเข้าตลาดหลักทรัพย์ภายในวันที่ 31 ธันวาคม 2026
76%
ไม่มีการนำหุ้นเข้าตลาดหลักทรัพย์ภายในวันที่ 31 ธันวาคม 2026 76%
1.5T+ 10.6%
500–750 พันล้าน 3.4%
1.25T–1.5T 3.4%
$1,637,985 ปริมาณ
$1,637,985 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
$266,158 ปริมาณ
1%
500–750 พันล้าน
$146,325 ปริมาณ
3%
750 พันล้าน – 1 ล้านล้าน
$141,040 ปริมาณ
2%
1 ล้านล้าน–1.25 ล้านล้าน
$182,379 ปริมาณ
2%
1.25T–1.5T
$496,174 ปริมาณ
3%
1.5T+
$100,916 ปริมาณ
11%
ไม่มีการนำหุ้นเข้าตลาดหลักทรัพย์ภายในวันที่ 31 ธันวาคม 2026
$304,993 ปริมาณ
76%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, at a 74.5% implied probability, propelled by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on CFO Sarah Friar's internal warnings that the aggressive timeline is unfeasible amid missed revenue and user growth targets, plus over $600 billion in compute commitments through 2030. Sam Altman's push for a Q4 2026 listing clashes with these financial realities and the absence of an S-1 filing, while ongoing Elon Musk lawsuit closing arguments—expected to yield a verdict next week—add leadership and structural risks. If an IPO materializes, traders price in trillion-dollar valuations reflecting OpenAI's $25 billion annualized revenue run rate and AI dominance, though competitive pressures from Anthropic and regulatory scrutiny temper mid-tier outcomes. Watch for banker talks or revised Microsoft partnership terms as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,637,985วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, at a 74.5% implied probability, propelled by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on CFO Sarah Friar's internal warnings that the aggressive timeline is unfeasible amid missed revenue and user growth targets, plus over $600 billion in compute commitments through 2030. Sam Altman's push for a Q4 2026 listing clashes with these financial realities and the absence of an S-1 filing, while ongoing Elon Musk lawsuit closing arguments—expected to yield a verdict next week—add leadership and structural risks. If an IPO materializes, traders price in trillion-dollar valuations reflecting OpenAI's $25 billion annualized revenue run rate and AI dominance, though competitive pressures from Anthropic and regulatory scrutiny temper mid-tier outcomes. Watch for banker talks or revised Microsoft partnership terms as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,637,985วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, at a 74.5% implied probability, propelled by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on CFO Sarah Friar's internal warnings that the aggressive timeline is unfeasible amid missed revenue and user growth targets, plus over $600 billion in compute commitments through 2030. Sam Altman's push for a Q4 2026 listing clashes with these financial realities and the absence of an S-1 filing, while ongoing Elon Musk lawsuit closing arguments—expected to yield a verdict next week—add leadership and structural risks. If an IPO materializes, traders price in trillion-dollar valuations reflecting OpenAI's $25 billion annualized revenue run rate and AI dominance, though competitive pressures from Anthropic and regulatory scrutiny temper mid-tier outcomes. Watch for banker talks or revised Microsoft partnership terms as key catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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