Recent National Weather Service and private model runs highlight increased thunderstorm chances and cloud cover over central Texas on July 14, tempering peak heating and supporting market-implied odds clustered around 80–83°F. Moisture advection from the Gulf combined with weak steering flow favors scattered to numerous storms that reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, differentiating outcomes in the 78–85°F bins. Ensemble spread in precipitation timing and coverage creates the tight probability distribution between 80–81°F and 82–83°F, while historical July climatology near 96°F underscores how atypical this pattern remains. Updated model guidance and radar trends through the overnight hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Austin on July 14?
Highest temperature in Austin on July 14?
82-83°F 36%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 20%
78-79°F 12%
ใหม่
$14,484 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$14,484 ปริมาณ
Jul 14, 2026
77°F or below
2%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
36%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 36%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 20%
78-79°F 12%
ใหม่
$14,484 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$14,484 ปริมาณ
Jul 14, 2026
77°F or below
$716 ปริมาณ
2%
78-79°F
$1,512 ปริมาณ
12%
80-81°F
$920 ปริมาณ
28%
82-83°F
$663 ปริมาณ
36%
84-85°F
$1,128 ปริมาณ
20%
86-87°F
$1,470 ปริมาณ
4%
88-89°F
$1,100 ปริมาณ
2%
90-91°F
$2,082 ปริมาณ
<1%
92-93°F
$1,912 ปริมาณ
<1%
94-95°F
$2,720 ปริมาณ
<1%
96°F or higher
$259 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model runs highlight increased thunderstorm chances and cloud cover over central Texas on July 14, tempering peak heating and supporting market-implied odds clustered around 80–83°F. Moisture advection from the Gulf combined with weak steering flow favors scattered to numerous storms that reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, differentiating outcomes in the 78–85°F bins. Ensemble spread in precipitation timing and coverage creates the tight probability distribution between 80–81°F and 82–83°F, while historical July climatology near 96°F underscores how atypical this pattern remains. Updated model guidance and radar trends through the overnight hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 12, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,484วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 12, 2026, 9:02 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model runs highlight increased thunderstorm chances and cloud cover over central Texas on July 14, tempering peak heating and supporting market-implied odds clustered around 80–83°F. Moisture advection from the Gulf combined with weak steering flow favors scattered to numerous storms that reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, differentiating outcomes in the 78–85°F bins. Ensemble spread in precipitation timing and coverage creates the tight probability distribution between 80–81°F and 82–83°F, while historical July climatology near 96°F underscores how atypical this pattern remains. Updated model guidance and radar trends through the overnight hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,484วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 12, 2026, 9:02 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model runs highlight increased thunderstorm chances and cloud cover over central Texas on July 14, tempering peak heating and supporting market-implied odds clustered around 80–83°F. Moisture advection from the Gulf combined with weak steering flow favors scattered to numerous storms that reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, differentiating outcomes in the 78–85°F bins. Ensemble spread in precipitation timing and coverage creates the tight probability distribution between 80–81°F and 82–83°F, while historical July climatology near 96°F underscores how atypical this pattern remains. Updated model guidance and radar trends through the overnight hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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