Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 15?
36°C 47%
37°C 41%
35°C 7%
38°C 4.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 15, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
7%
36°C
47%
37°C
41%
38°C
4%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 47%
37°C 41%
35°C 7%
38°C 4.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 15, 2026
32°C or below
$437 ปริมาณ
<1%
33°C
$381 ปริมาณ
1%
34°C
$536 ปริมาณ
1%
35°C
$1,103 ปริมาณ
7%
36°C
$1,069 ปริมาณ
47%
37°C
$1,589 ปริมาณ
41%
38°C
$501 ปริมาณ
4%
39°C
$339 ปริมาณ
1%
40°C
$300 ปริมาณ
<1%
41°C
$126 ปริมาณ
<1%
42°C or higher
$121 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,500วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,500วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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