Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a daily maximum temperature in Houston on May 22 near the low-to-mid 80s, driven by a cooler-than-normal air mass and increased cloud cover ahead of a frontal passage. Ensemble runs show modest spread around 82–86 °F, reflecting uncertainty in timing of afternoon convection that could cap peak readings. Historical climatology places the May 22 normal high at 89 °F, so current conditions represent a notable negative anomaly. With resolution just two days away, traders are closely monitoring the next 12–24-hour forecast updates from the Houston/Galveston NWS office for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or steering flow that would favor the 82–83 °F or 84–85 °F bins now carrying the highest implied probabilities.