Current forecast models from major centers indicate a daily maximum near 36–38°C for Jeddah on May 22, placing the market’s leading outcomes in close contention as traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer heating and Red Sea moisture advection. Historical May climatology shows mean highs of 35–38°C, with occasional spikes above 40°C driven by subsiding high-pressure ridges over the Arabian Peninsula. Recent upper-level flow patterns and sea-surface temperatures near 30°C support modest intensification potential, while wind shifts could either enhance or suppress peak readings by 1–2°C. Resolution hinges on the official Saudi National Center for Meteorology observation at King Abdulaziz International Airport, where small forecast revisions in the final 24 hours often determine whether the high settles at 36°C or pushes into the upper 30s.