Recent forecasts from models like those underlying Yr.no and national meteorological guidance indicate Mexico City will see mostly cloudy skies with widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms on September 11, limiting solar insolation and capping afternoon temperatures near 21–23 °C. Persistent easterly moisture transport during the peak of the rainy season, combined with the city’s 2,240 m elevation and urban heat-island moderation, favors this range over the 25–26 °C thresholds that currently command roughly 85 % of market-implied probability. Recent drier spells earlier in the month allowed isolated readings above 25 °C, but updated guidance shows stronger convective activity and higher cloud cover tomorrow, increasing the chance that the official maximum stays at or below 24 °C. Traders appear to be weighting historical September variability and possible model spread more heavily than the latest precipitation-heavy runs.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 11?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 11?
25°C 42%
26°C or higher 40%
24°C 15%
23°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
5%
24°C
15%
25°C
42%
26°C or higher
40%
25°C 42%
26°C or higher 40%
24°C 15%
23°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
$266 ปริมาณ
<1%
17°C
$256 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C
$256 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$197 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C
$36 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$33 ปริมาณ
1%
22°C
$124 ปริมาณ
3%
23°C
$95 ปริมาณ
5%
24°C
$313 ปริมาณ
15%
25°C
$375 ปริมาณ
42%
26°C or higher
$1,103 ปริมาณ
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models like those underlying Yr.no and national meteorological guidance indicate Mexico City will see mostly cloudy skies with widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms on September 11, limiting solar insolation and capping afternoon temperatures near 21–23 °C. Persistent easterly moisture transport during the peak of the rainy season, combined with the city’s 2,240 m elevation and urban heat-island moderation, favors this range over the 25–26 °C thresholds that currently command roughly 85 % of market-implied probability. Recent drier spells earlier in the month allowed isolated readings above 25 °C, but updated guidance shows stronger convective activity and higher cloud cover tomorrow, increasing the chance that the official maximum stays at or below 24 °C. Traders appear to be weighting historical September variability and possible model spread more heavily than the latest precipitation-heavy runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 9, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,056วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 9, 2026, 8:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models like those underlying Yr.no and national meteorological guidance indicate Mexico City will see mostly cloudy skies with widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms on September 11, limiting solar insolation and capping afternoon temperatures near 21–23 °C. Persistent easterly moisture transport during the peak of the rainy season, combined with the city’s 2,240 m elevation and urban heat-island moderation, favors this range over the 25–26 °C thresholds that currently command roughly 85 % of market-implied probability. Recent drier spells earlier in the month allowed isolated readings above 25 °C, but updated guidance shows stronger convective activity and higher cloud cover tomorrow, increasing the chance that the official maximum stays at or below 24 °C. Traders appear to be weighting historical September variability and possible model spread more heavily than the latest precipitation-heavy runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,056วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 9, 2026, 8:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models like those underlying Yr.no and national meteorological guidance indicate Mexico City will see mostly cloudy skies with widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms on September 11, limiting solar insolation and capping afternoon temperatures near 21–23 °C. Persistent easterly moisture transport during the peak of the rainy season, combined with the city’s 2,240 m elevation and urban heat-island moderation, favors this range over the 25–26 °C thresholds that currently command roughly 85 % of market-implied probability. Recent drier spells earlier in the month allowed isolated readings above 25 °C, but updated guidance shows stronger convective activity and higher cloud cover tomorrow, increasing the chance that the official maximum stays at or below 24 °C. Traders appear to be weighting historical September variability and possible model spread more heavily than the latest precipitation-heavy runs.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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