**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 30–31°C for Shenzhen’s July 6 maximum, with those two outcomes commanding over half the probability mass.** This reflects ensemble guidance pointing to typical subtropical summer conditions in early July, where the climatological daily high averages near 32°C but is frequently moderated by monsoon moisture, afternoon thundershowers, and persistent cloud cover from the South China Sea. High relative humidity and the urban heat-island effect create a narrow band of possible peaks, while any increase in subsidence or clearer skies could allow brief excursions toward 32–33°C. Conversely, stronger convective activity or earlier rainfall would favor the lower 29–30°C outcomes. Model spread on boundary-layer moisture and timing of diurnal heating keeps the distribution flat between the two leaders, with traders weighing the latest regional forecasts for convective inhibition and steering flow that will determine whether the city reaches or falls short of the July mean.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Shenzhen on July 6?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 6?
30°C 27%
31°C 25%
32°C 17%
29°C 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 6, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
6%
29°C
16%
30°C
27%
31°C
25%
32°C
17%
33°C
11%
34°C or higher
6%
30°C 27%
31°C 25%
32°C 17%
29°C 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 6, 2026
24°C or below
$208 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$110 ปริมาณ
1%
26°C
$10 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$20 ปริมาณ
6%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
6%
29°C
$20 ปริมาณ
16%
30°C
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
31°C
$0 ปริมาณ
25%
32°C
$0 ปริมาณ
17%
33°C
$112 ปริมาณ
11%
34°C or higher
$53 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 30–31°C for Shenzhen’s July 6 maximum, with those two outcomes commanding over half the probability mass.** This reflects ensemble guidance pointing to typical subtropical summer conditions in early July, where the climatological daily high averages near 32°C but is frequently moderated by monsoon moisture, afternoon thundershowers, and persistent cloud cover from the South China Sea.
High relative humidity and the urban heat-island effect create a narrow band of possible peaks, while any increase in subsidence or clearer skies could allow brief excursions toward 32–33°C. Conversely, stronger convective activity or earlier rainfall would favor the lower 29–30°C outcomes. Model spread on boundary-layer moisture and timing of diurnal heating keeps the distribution flat between the two leaders, with traders weighing the latest regional forecasts for convective inhibition and steering flow that will determine whether the city reaches or falls short of the July mean.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$534วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 30–31°C for Shenzhen’s July 6 maximum, with those two outcomes commanding over half the probability mass.** This reflects ensemble guidance pointing to typical subtropical summer conditions in early July, where the climatological daily high averages near 32°C but is frequently moderated by monsoon moisture, afternoon thundershowers, and persistent cloud cover from the South China Sea.
High relative humidity and the urban heat-island effect create a narrow band of possible peaks, while any increase in subsidence or clearer skies could allow brief excursions toward 32–33°C. Conversely, stronger convective activity or earlier rainfall would favor the lower 29–30°C outcomes. Model spread on boundary-layer moisture and timing of diurnal heating keeps the distribution flat between the two leaders, with traders weighing the latest regional forecasts for convective inhibition and steering flow that will determine whether the city reaches or falls short of the July mean.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$534วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 30–31°C for Shenzhen’s July 6 maximum, with those two outcomes commanding over half the probability mass.** This reflects ensemble guidance pointing to typical subtropical summer conditions in early July, where the climatological daily high averages near 32°C but is frequently moderated by monsoon moisture, afternoon thundershowers, and persistent cloud cover from the South China Sea. High relative humidity and the urban heat-island effect create a narrow band of possible peaks, while any increase in subsidence or clearer skies could allow brief excursions toward 32–33°C. Conversely, stronger convective activity or earlier rainfall would favor the lower 29–30°C outcomes. Model spread on boundary-layer moisture and timing of diurnal heating keeps the distribution flat between the two leaders, with traders weighing the latest regional forecasts for convective inhibition and steering flow that will determine whether the city reaches or falls short of the July mean.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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