Official forecasts from MetService and NIWA project a Wellington daily maximum near 14°C on August 12, 2026, consistent with the market’s 100% implied probability on that outcome. This aligns with August climatology of 12–13°C highs under typical westerly and southerly maritime flows, tempered by a developing front and moderating northerly influence that supports modest warming amid persistent cloud cover and elevated winds. Recent days saw cooler peaks of 10–12°C under stronger southerlies, but updated model runs indicate reduced chill without exceeding the narrow 13–15°C range. Small shifts in frontal timing or wind direction remain the primary variables that could alter the observed peak by 1°C before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on August 12?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12?
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$146,823 ปริมาณ
$146,823 ปริมาณ
Aug 12, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$146,823 ปริมาณ
$146,823 ปริมาณ
Aug 12, 2026
9°C or below
$9,271 ปริมาณ
No
10°C
$11,711 ปริมาณ
No
11°C
$18,058 ปริมาณ
No
12°C
$25,993 ปริมาณ
No
13°C
$27,881 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$15,853 ปริมาณ
Yes
15°C
$19,736 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$5,681 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$3,992 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$3,234 ปริมาณ
No
19°C or higher
$5,413 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from MetService and NIWA project a Wellington daily maximum near 14°C on August 12, 2026, consistent with the market’s 100% implied probability on that outcome. This aligns with August climatology of 12–13°C highs under typical westerly and southerly maritime flows, tempered by a developing front and moderating northerly influence that supports modest warming amid persistent cloud cover and elevated winds. Recent days saw cooler peaks of 10–12°C under stronger southerlies, but updated model runs indicate reduced chill without exceeding the narrow 13–15°C range. Small shifts in frontal timing or wind direction remain the primary variables that could alter the observed peak by 1°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$146,823วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from MetService and NIWA project a Wellington daily maximum near 14°C on August 12, 2026, consistent with the market’s 100% implied probability on that outcome. This aligns with August climatology of 12–13°C highs under typical westerly and southerly maritime flows, tempered by a developing front and moderating northerly influence that supports modest warming amid persistent cloud cover and elevated winds. Recent days saw cooler peaks of 10–12°C under stronger southerlies, but updated model runs indicate reduced chill without exceeding the narrow 13–15°C range. Small shifts in frontal timing or wind direction remain the primary variables that could alter the observed peak by 1°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$146,823วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Official forecasts from MetService and NIWA project a Wellington daily maximum near 14°C on August 12, 2026, consistent with the market’s 100% implied probability on that outcome. This aligns with August climatology of 12–13°C highs under typical westerly and southerly maritime flows, tempered by a developing front and moderating northerly influence that supports modest warming amid persistent cloud cover and elevated winds. Recent days saw cooler peaks of 10–12°C under stronger southerlies, but updated model runs indicate reduced chill without exceeding the narrow 13–15°C range. Small shifts in frontal timing or wind direction remain the primary variables that could alter the observed peak by 1°C before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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