Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 18 daily maximum centers on near-average mid-winter conditions, with 11°C and 12°C capturing the bulk of implied probability. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with historical August maxima of 11–13°C. Recent polar air outbreaks have delivered cooler-than-normal starts, with overnight lows near 7°C and supporting model guidance for modest daytime recovery. Short-range ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values ahead of the next MetService update, while the low odds assigned to 13°C+ or sub-10°C reflect the narrow window for significant warming or further cooling before resolution. Traders weigh these climatological baselines and fresh observational data against typical forecast uncertainty ranges in the two-day period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
11°C 54%
12°C 34%
10°C 10%
13°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
10%
11°C
54%
12°C
34%
13°C
5%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 54%
12°C 34%
10°C 10%
13°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
$278 ปริมาณ
<1%
7°C
$258 ปริมาณ
<1%
8°C
$158 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$138 ปริมาณ
2%
10°C
$258 ปริมาณ
10%
11°C
$1,418 ปริมาณ
54%
12°C
$2,425 ปริมาณ
34%
13°C
$249 ปริมาณ
5%
14°C
$171 ปริมาณ
1%
15°C
$202 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C or higher
$202 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 18 daily maximum centers on near-average mid-winter conditions, with 11°C and 12°C capturing the bulk of implied probability. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with historical August maxima of 11–13°C. Recent polar air outbreaks have delivered cooler-than-normal starts, with overnight lows near 7°C and supporting model guidance for modest daytime recovery. Short-range ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values ahead of the next MetService update, while the low odds assigned to 13°C+ or sub-10°C reflect the narrow window for significant warming or further cooling before resolution. Traders weigh these climatological baselines and fresh observational data against typical forecast uncertainty ranges in the two-day period.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,759วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 18 daily maximum centers on near-average mid-winter conditions, with 11°C and 12°C capturing the bulk of implied probability. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with historical August maxima of 11–13°C. Recent polar air outbreaks have delivered cooler-than-normal starts, with overnight lows near 7°C and supporting model guidance for modest daytime recovery. Short-range ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values ahead of the next MetService update, while the low odds assigned to 13°C+ or sub-10°C reflect the narrow window for significant warming or further cooling before resolution. Traders weigh these climatological baselines and fresh observational data against typical forecast uncertainty ranges in the two-day period.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,759วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 18 daily maximum centers on near-average mid-winter conditions, with 11°C and 12°C capturing the bulk of implied probability. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with historical August maxima of 11–13°C. Recent polar air outbreaks have delivered cooler-than-normal starts, with overnight lows near 7°C and supporting model guidance for modest daytime recovery. Short-range ensemble forecasts show limited spread around these values ahead of the next MetService update, while the low odds assigned to 13°C+ or sub-10°C reflect the narrow window for significant warming or further cooling before resolution. Traders weigh these climatological baselines and fresh observational data against typical forecast uncertainty ranges in the two-day period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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