Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions Istanbul’s August 18 high near 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 30 °C (40.5 %) and 31 °C (30 %). Mid-August climatology shows average highs of 29–30 °C under typical subtropical high pressure and northerly flow that moderates humidity while limiting extreme heat. Current surface analyses indicate stable, mostly sunny conditions with light winds, reducing the chance of rapid warming or cooling. Traders appear to weigh small model spreads in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon sea-breeze timing as the main uncertainty, keeping probabilities concentrated around the historical and forecast mean rather than extremes. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
30°C 43%
31°C 30%
29°C 23%
32°C 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
8%
28°C
10%
29°C
23%
30°C
33%
31°C
30%
32°C
10%
33°C
4%
34°C or higher
4%
30°C 43%
31°C 30%
29°C 23%
32°C 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
$174 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$10 ปริมาณ
2%
26°C
$15 ปริมาณ
4%
27°C
$58 ปริมาณ
8%
28°C
$36 ปริมาณ
10%
29°C
$29 ปริมาณ
23%
30°C
$174 ปริมาณ
33%
31°C
$102 ปริมาณ
30%
32°C
$65 ปริมาณ
10%
33°C
$35 ปริมาณ
4%
34°C or higher
$15 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions Istanbul’s August 18 high near 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 30 °C (40.5 %) and 31 °C (30 %). Mid-August climatology shows average highs of 29–30 °C under typical subtropical high pressure and northerly flow that moderates humidity while limiting extreme heat. Current surface analyses indicate stable, mostly sunny conditions with light winds, reducing the chance of rapid warming or cooling. Traders appear to weigh small model spreads in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon sea-breeze timing as the main uncertainty, keeping probabilities concentrated around the historical and forecast mean rather than extremes. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$714วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions Istanbul’s August 18 high near 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 30 °C (40.5 %) and 31 °C (30 %). Mid-August climatology shows average highs of 29–30 °C under typical subtropical high pressure and northerly flow that moderates humidity while limiting extreme heat. Current surface analyses indicate stable, mostly sunny conditions with light winds, reducing the chance of rapid warming or cooling. Traders appear to weigh small model spreads in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon sea-breeze timing as the main uncertainty, keeping probabilities concentrated around the historical and forecast mean rather than extremes. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$714วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions Istanbul’s August 18 high near 29–31 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 30 °C (40.5 %) and 31 °C (30 %). Mid-August climatology shows average highs of 29–30 °C under typical subtropical high pressure and northerly flow that moderates humidity while limiting extreme heat. Current surface analyses indicate stable, mostly sunny conditions with light winds, reducing the chance of rapid warming or cooling. Traders appear to weigh small model spreads in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon sea-breeze timing as the main uncertainty, keeping probabilities concentrated around the historical and forecast mean rather than extremes. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย