Recent short-range forecasts from European models such as the ECMWF and national meteorological services point to a daily maximum near 20–21°C in Warsaw on August 18, driven by increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and light westerly winds that limit daytime heating beneath a passing frontal system. This setup deviates modestly below the late-August climatological average of 23–24°C, with model consensus narrowing uncertainty around the 19–21°C range that dominates current market-implied odds. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours, including any revisions to precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture, represent the key catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.