The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October follows Sir Keir Starmer’s early September resignation as MP, opening a contest in a long-held Labour seat. Traders price “another candidate wins” highest because the Green Party’s leader Zack Polanski is contesting, capitalising on strong local momentum after the party placed second in the 2026 Camden council elections. Labour’s candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, faces a tight race in a constituency with progressive voters and recent Green gains of roughly ten points. National Labour challenges under the Burnham administration and multi-candidate fragmentation further compress Labour’s expected margin, producing the observed clustering around narrow or negative outcomes for the party. Upcoming voter registration deadlines and final-week campaigning remain the main near-term variables.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLabour 15%+ 41%
Labour 10-15% 24%
Labour 0-5% 17%
Labour 5-10% 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 8, 2026
Labour 15%+
41%
Labour 10-15%
24%
Labour 5-10%
14%
Labour 0-5%
17%
Green 0-5%
5%
Green 5-10%
12%
Green 10-15%
5%
Green 15%+
2%
Labour 15%+ 41%
Labour 10-15% 24%
Labour 0-5% 17%
Labour 5-10% 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 8, 2026
Labour 15%+
$1,444 ปริมาณ
41%
Labour 10-15%
$140 ปริมาณ
24%
Labour 5-10%
$202 ปริมาณ
14%
Labour 0-5%
$164 ปริมาณ
17%
Green 0-5%
$132 ปริมาณ
5%
Green 5-10%
$135 ปริมาณ
12%
Green 10-15%
$610 ปริมาณ
5%
Green 15%+
$92 ปริมาณ
2%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October follows Sir Keir Starmer’s early September resignation as MP, opening a contest in a long-held Labour seat. Traders price “another candidate wins” highest because the Green Party’s leader Zack Polanski is contesting, capitalising on strong local momentum after the party placed second in the 2026 Camden council elections. Labour’s candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, faces a tight race in a constituency with progressive voters and recent Green gains of roughly ten points. National Labour challenges under the Burnham administration and multi-candidate fragmentation further compress Labour’s expected margin, producing the observed clustering around narrow or negative outcomes for the party. Upcoming voter registration deadlines and final-week campaigning remain the main near-term variables.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,920วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October follows Sir Keir Starmer’s early September resignation as MP, opening a contest in a long-held Labour seat. Traders price “another candidate wins” highest because the Green Party’s leader Zack Polanski is contesting, capitalising on strong local momentum after the party placed second in the 2026 Camden council elections. Labour’s candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, faces a tight race in a constituency with progressive voters and recent Green gains of roughly ten points. National Labour challenges under the Burnham administration and multi-candidate fragmentation further compress Labour’s expected margin, producing the observed clustering around narrow or negative outcomes for the party. Upcoming voter registration deadlines and final-week campaigning remain the main near-term variables.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,920วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October follows Sir Keir Starmer’s early September resignation as MP, opening a contest in a long-held Labour seat. Traders price “another candidate wins” highest because the Green Party’s leader Zack Polanski is contesting, capitalising on strong local momentum after the party placed second in the 2026 Camden council elections. Labour’s candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, faces a tight race in a constituency with progressive voters and recent Green gains of roughly ten points. National Labour challenges under the Burnham administration and multi-candidate fragmentation further compress Labour’s expected margin, producing the observed clustering around narrow or negative outcomes for the party. Upcoming voter registration deadlines and final-week campaigning remain the main near-term variables.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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