Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 10, 2026
0
47%
1
31%
2
18%
3
4%
4
2%
5
1%
>5
1%
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 10, 2026
0
$1,157 ปริมาณ
47%
1
$205 ปริมาณ
31%
2
$92 ปริมาณ
18%
3
$77 ปริมาณ
4%
4
$126 ปริมาณ
2%
5
$134 ปริมาณ
1%
>5
$91 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,882วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,882วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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