**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k deportations for 2026 because current ICE removal rates project totals in that range.** Fiscal year 2026 data through mid-July show roughly 356,000 removals, running at about 1,200–1,300 per day and on pace for roughly 450,000–480,000 annually, consistent with the leading outcome. Arrests have hit record monthly highs near 50,000, supported by expanded detention capacity, yet removals have not scaled proportionally due to logistical constraints, court-ordered due process requirements, and a recent First Circuit ruling limiting third-country deportations. Administration statements highlight broader departures including self-deportations and border actions, but formal ICE removal figures remain the primary benchmark reflected in pricing. No developments in the past month have shifted the pace enough to alter the central range materially.