Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วในปี 2026 มีการเปิดตัวยานอวกาศ SpaceX Starship กี่ลำ?
ในปี 2026 มีการเปิดตัวยานอวกาศ SpaceX Starship กี่ลำ?
น้อยกว่า 5 50%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
>16 4.1%
$450,036 ปริมาณ
$450,036 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
น้อยกว่า 5
52%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
น้อยกว่า 5 50%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
>16 4.1%
$450,036 ปริมาณ
$450,036 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
น้อยกว่า 5
$90,622 ปริมาณ
52%
5-6
$108,327 ปริมาณ
26%
7-8
$152,207 ปริมาณ
4%
9-10
$55,882 ปริมาณ
2%
11-12
$3,765 ปริมาณ
2%
13-14
$4,747 ปริมาณ
1%
15-16
$25,181 ปริมาณ
2%
>16
$9,304 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$450,036วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$450,036วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Regulatory approvals for expanded Starship operations at Starbase and Kennedy Space Center, including environmental clearances for up to 25-44 annual launches, have boosted optimism for higher cadence in 2026, yet the market heavily favors fewer than five successful space-reaching flights at 49.5% implied probability. This reflects the program's deliberate testing pace, with Starship V3 debuting on the upcoming twelfth flight test and key milestones like long-duration orbital propulsion and propellant transfer demos still pending later this year. Historical flight test outcomes, ongoing FAA license refinements, and the shift from suborbital to full orbital profiles continue to temper trader expectations for rapid scaling.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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