U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and halting enrichment activities according to IAEA assessments and official statements. Subsequent reports through mid-2026 confirm no resumption of uranium enrichment, limited IAEA access, and a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirming Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. These verified setbacks, combined with the short window before 2027, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus on "No." Remaining uncertainty centers on potential undetected recovery of buried material, covert reconstruction at undamaged sites, or shifts in Iranian leadership priorities that could accelerate weaponization timelines.